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After the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) last Friday and Signature Bank on Sunday (yesterday), the U.S. Treasury, FDIC and Federal Reserve are using emergency powers under the systemic risk exception to make whole all depositors, not just those with deposits...
With inflation not coming down as quickly as hoped and the global economy holding up better than expected, investors are looking for interest rates to remain higher for longer, resulting in a negative impact in equity markets – the S&P 500 being down 3.2% over the...
The Fed’s Open Market Committee meets this week and will most likely decide to increase its Fed funds target another 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75%-5%, while acknowledging their readiness to adjust rate increases if banking system stability requires it. The...
Stronger than expected inflation and spending data have pushed up U.S. interest rates and interest rate expectations with negative impact on equity markets and a stronger U.S. dollar. The unexpectedly strong increase in core PCE inflation in January – up 4.7% vs 4.6%...
Economic data continue to surprise on the upside, first with January’s larger than expected payroll employment gains and then with January retail sales and manufacturing output. So the chances of first quarter GDP growth being positive are improving. Real consumption...
Financial markets are signaling their belief that the Fed can bring down inflation without putting the economy into recession and millions of people out of work – i.e. the “soft landing.” This Tuesday’s release of January CPI inflation data will test that belief....
The Fed’s 25 bp interest rate increase and a surprising 517,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.4% -- a 53-year low -- contributed to renewed confidence that the Fed can be bringing inflation down without putting millions of workers on the...
U.S. GDP grew 2.9% in Q-4 2022 and core PCE inflation increased by 0.3% in December, with its three-month annualized rate falling to 2.9%. The S&P 500 responded positively for the week and is up 6% in January through last Friday. Fed Funds interest rate...
The two biggest threats to the U.S. economy and financial markets in 2023 are the Fed tightening beyond what is required to bring inflation back to its 2% target rate and a possible U.S. Treasury debt default if Congress fails to raise or suspend the “debt limit.” The...