Keel Point Insights

Check out our guides, tools and research for expert help on all your
life planning, wealth planning, and familiy management questions!

& Videos

Awards &
Press Releases


Keel Point
in the News

Market Recap – April 17, 2023

Keel Point

April 17, 2023

Last week inflation news was encouraging but not sufficiently positive to keep the Fed from tightening another 25 bp at its May 2-3 meetings. Another rate boost, coupled with slowing growth and negative first quarter earnings, will put downward pressure on stock prices.

  • Headline CPI inflation fell to a near two-year low of 5% (y/y) in March from 6% in February, but core inflation increased to 5.6% (y/y) from 5.5% in February.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report last Friday showed that the 12-month ahead measure of inflation expectations rose sharply to 4.6% from 3.6% a month earlier, creating concern, especially at the Fed, that inflation expectations may be settling in.
  • There is good news in shelter inflation slowing, with lower rent inflation and owner equivalent rents rising more modestly. This slowing is expected to reduce core inflation by as much as 1% by year-end.
  • The other good inflation news reported last week is that core producer price inflation declined 0.1% (m/m) in March because of lower trade services prices.

Additional new data reported last week indicate further slowing of the economy heading into the second quarter.

  • Retail sales fell 1% m/m in March, and manufacturing dropped 0.5% m/m. The manufacturing decline also suggests that the reopening of China is providing no significant benefit to U.S. producers.
  • Small businesses (NFIB) reported last week a sharp worsening in credit availability in March, with NFIB’s credit index falling to its worst in level in 10 years coincident with NFIB’s capital expenditures intentions slipping to a two-year low and hiring intentions dropping to a three-year low.
  • The consensus in fixed-income markets is for a likely recession beginning in Q2 or Q3, leading to Fed rate cuts in Q3 and Q4.

In contrast to S&P prices being up two consecutive quarters through the end of March 2023, S&P earnings are looking to be down a second consecutive quarter in 2023-Q1.

  • Bloomberg consensus projection is for an 8% y/y drop in Q1 S&P earnings per share and a 4% y/y drop in Q2 earnings per share.


Disclosure: Securities offered through Keel Point Capital, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC. Brokerage and Investment Advisory Services are offered under the Keel Point brand. Investment Advisory Services offered by Keel Point, LLC, an affiliate of Keel Point Capital, LLC. While reasonable efforts have been made to provide data from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee of accuracy is given. Keel Point does not give tax, accounting, regulatory, or legal advice to its clients.

Related News & Articles

Market Recap – September 18, 2023

The big news last week was hotter inflation from energy/gasoline price increases and stronger than expected consumer spending.  This takes on more importance for the Fed’s FOMC meetings this Tuesday and Wednesday. While the Fed likely will not raise interest rates at...

read more

Market Recap – September 11, 2023

Not withstanding positive economic growth, low unemployment, and declining inflation, 58% of voters say the economy has gotten worse over the past two years, only 28% say it has gotten better, and nearly 75% say inflation is headed in the wrong direction, according to...

read more

Market Recap – September 5, 2023

Labor Day celebrates our workforce while marking the end of summer. This year it also reminds us of that new jobs and new entrants to the work force are contributing to a resilient U.S. economy and declining inflation.  The S&P 500 ended August down 1.8% but...

read more